By Claire Reilly
Following a cooler than expected summer last year which saw many suppliers and retailers facing slow seasonal appliance sales, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued a forecast for the end of this year showing higher than average temperatures expected across Australia.
In its national outlook – averaged over the months of October, November and December 2012 – the BOM has forecasted that “warmer days and nights are more likely over most of Australia”, largely due to warmer than normal waters in the Indian Ocean.
The Bureau measured how likely it was for temperatures across Australia to exceed the long-term median maximum temperature from October to December. Across most of Australia, there is at least a 60 per cent change that they will go above average.
“Probabilities rise above 80 per cent over the eastern Top End of the Northern Territory, much of northern Queensland, and large parts of southeast Australia,” read a statement from the Bureau.
“This means that for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to eight October to December periods would be expected to be warmer than average over these areas, with about two to four being cooler than average.”
The BOM is also expecting much of Australia to exceed the long-term average minimum temperature from October to December, with the south west of Western Australia having an 80 per cent chance of exceeding minimums.
These forecasts will come as good news for many in the seasonal products category. While warm temperatures help with the sell through of cooling products in summer, a hot start early in the season is often a bigger driver of sales – consumers are more likely see the benefits of purchasing an air conditioner or fan. If the heat comes too late in the season, many consumers will try to wait it out until the weather cools.
A map showing the chance of exceeding the median long-term maximum temperature across different parts of Australia from October to December 2012. (Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Click on the image above to see a larger version of the map).
A map showing the chance of exceeding the median long-term minimum temperature across different parts of Australia from October to December 2012. (Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Click on the image above to see a larger version of the map).