Pessimists continue to outnumber optimists.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 4.0% in April from
99.1 in March to 95.1 in April, which has been described as a “disappointing result”, by Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans (pictured).
“After holding above 100 in the November–February period the Index has now been below 100 for two consecutive months. A print below 100 means that pessimists outnumber optimists. That had consistently been the case in the March 2014 – October 2015 period when the Index only exceeded the 100 level twice in 20 months.
“With four consecutive readings above 100 we were hopeful that confidence had moved on to a sustainable higher plain. Today’s result would appear to dash those hopes,” Evans said.
International and market developments continue to create unease for respondents although the signals are mixed. The Australian sharemarket fell 3% over the month and media coverage on China continues to highlight risks. On the other hand the US sharemarket rose 2.4%. Specific sentiment towards housing fell sharply.
“A standout development over the month has been the solid rise in the AUD, up another 2 cents over the month, pushing over 77 cents US at one stage to a nine month high. Given that rebalancing of the economy towards service exports – tourism and education in particular – has been an important positive development over the last two years, respondents may now be interpreting any increase in the AUD as adverse for future growth,” he added.
Four of the five components of the Index fell in April. The sub-index tracking assessments of ‘family finances compared to a year ago’ declined 3.8%, while the component tracking expectations for ‘family finances over the next 12 months’ fell by 6.6%.
There was also concern about the economic outlook, the component tracking views on ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ down 5.5% and the component tracking expectations for ‘economic conditions over the next 5 years’ down 5.9%.
The ‘time to buy a major household item’ component was the only one to increase, registering a modest 1.0% gain.
Prospects for the housing market softened. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index tumbled by 9.2%. There was a substantial fall (–13%) in NSW, which had already been registering the weakest sentiment and pushed the NSW Index back near the lows of mid last year.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on May 3.