Post Federal Election.
Consumers’ have recovered their confidence according to the latest ANZ Roy Morgan data. The results reversed the previous week’s loss with all sub-indices showing positive. The survey coincided with the election so much of the gain seems likely to have reflected the impact of the surprise win by the Coalition.
And in good news for retailers, the ‘time to buy a household item’ improved significantly, up 4.1%, its highest level since the end of March.
Current financial conditions also increased 0.5%, while future financial conditions were up 1.2%. Economic conditions, which were responsible for much of the previous week’s fall, were also in positive territory. Current economic conditions rose 3.8%, compared to a fall of 8.1% previously, while future economic conditions were up 0.9%.
ANZ head of Australian Economics, David Plank, said the tone of the domestic economic data released during the week prior to the survey would not have provided much of a boost to confidence.
“The move only reverses the prior week’s fall, however, so we won’t overplay it. Still, it leaves consumer sentiment above average.”
However, a Roy Morgan poll conducted last week showed only 34% of electors thought the L-NP Coalition would win the Federal Election while 66% thought the ALP would win. A bare majority of 53% of L-NP supporters thought the L-NP would win although 81% of ALP supporters and 84% of Greens supporters predicted an ALP victory.
The poll was conducted via SMS over May 14-16, 2019 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,004 electors who were asked: Regardless of who you have or will vote for, who do you think will win the Federal Election?”