Retail forecast a “rollercoaster ride”

By Keri Algar

SYDNEY, NSW: Thanks to the mining industry and China, Australia’s economic recovery is expected to continue in the face of shaky overseas markets; however, consumers are not acting so confidently, according to a report released today by a leading economics consultancy.

The Access Economics Business Outlook said that the strong Australian dollar “may have done its dash for this cycle”, which could increase price inflation in 2011 and 2012, as well as bringing about changes in the price of currently falling import prices.

However, while the rising price of goods and services could mark a strengthening economy, the report issues a warning to the retail industry.

“There are rising domestic risks ahead too, with Australian consumers not yet embracing retail therapy with the same enthusiasm that they have shown in times past, while the recovery in housing construction is dragging its feet badly, and government stimulus spending is soon to recede as a growth driver,” said the report.

The report detailed the expected retail turnover of all the states, revealing Victoria at the top of the chart with a 3.9 per cent growth forecast for 2010 to 2011. This was followed by the Northern Territories with 3.3 per cent and Western Australia with 3.1 per cent for 2010 to 2011.

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